Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has added fresh uncertainty to Gaza cease-fire efforts, following a year of stalled negotiations under the Biden administration due to unresolved demands between Israel and Hamas.
For months, key players in the region, including Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, and Qatar, adopted a cautious stance in anticipation of the U.S. election. Analysts suggest that any progress toward a truce could be postponed until after Trump’s inauguration in January.
Middle East expert Michael Stephens from the Royal United Services Institute remarked that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had likely awaited the election outcome before taking action. “Why would he make concessions under Biden now?” Stephens observed.
With over 42,000 casualties reported in Gaza, including thousands of civilians, Biden’s proposed three-stage truce aimed at ending hostilities and securing hostages remains stalled. Although Israel expressed willingness to negotiate an end to the conflict, Hamas rejected interim truce proposals, calling instead for a complete cessation of hostilities as a precondition.
Trump’s strong stance on Israel during his prior term has already garnered Netanyahu’s support, and the two leaders spoke soon after the election, agreeing to strengthen Israel’s security. Trump’s approach, advocating for Israel’s right to “finish up” its campaign, could contrast with more conservative elements within Israel’s government who support continued Israeli control over Gaza.
Trump’s supporters hope his administration will bring stability, but it remains uncertain how he might influence Gaza’s trajectory. In a statement, Hamas noted it would gauge the incoming administration’s policies toward Palestinian rights before forming a definitive position.
Trump’s victory has temporarily eased the pressure on Netanyahu to pursue a Biden-backed truce, with Biden now seen as a “lame duck” leader, diminishing U.S. influence in the region.